A powered system, such as a mass-coupled system, for example, exhibits behavior which may be modeled in some fashion. In certain modes of operation of the powered system, the model may be valid, and in other modes of operation, the model may be invalid, when compared with the actual behavior of the powered system. In one example, the behavior of a train may be modeled with a lumped-mass model. A mismatch occurs between the lumped-mass model of the train and the actual behavior of the train during a train handling event called a “run-in” or a “run-out.” The importance of determining a mismatch of the train mass model and the actual behavior of the train is underscored by the fact that a severe run-in or run-out may cause a derailment.
While a train, including one or more locomotives, travels along a rail from one location to another, it is important that the train is not subject to any external or internal forces which may cause a derailment. In conventional systems, the train operator is trained to monitor for derailment conditions. A determination system of a run-in or run-out would be quite valuable, as it would provide a possible early warning sign of a future derailment risk. In addition, a determination system of a run-in or run-out would provide a wealth of other useful information, such as a possible error in a grade database for the rail, poor train handling, or poor train weight distribution, for example, which may be utilized to prevent future run-ins and run-outs.
Although train operators have been trained to monitor for derailment conditions, the train operators do not formally determine whether a mismatch has occurred between the lumped-mass model of the train and the actual behavior of the train. Additionally, the train operators do not consider the appropriate train parameters, or the rate of change of these train parameters, in determining whether a run-in or run-out has occurred. Accordingly, it would be advantageous to provide a system which does determine whether a run-in or run-out has occurred on a real-time basis, in addition to a system which evaluates the appropriate train parameters in making such determinations. Furthermore, it would be advantageous to provide a system which could be coupled to an existing control system which could automatically modify control parameters to reduce the current train handling risk or notify the operator of the recommended actions.